In a new post, partner-in-crime Paul Kimball calls me on my recent almost-dismissal of the Extraterrestrial Hypothesis. (In retrospect, I agree that my argument was too brash; maybe it just came out wrong.)
Paul, defending the validity of the ETH, writes:
I see nothing "extraordinarily unlikely" about the ETH based on the various reports. Let us suppose, for example, and just for the sake of argument, that the aliens are perhaps no more than 30 or 40 years more advanced than us.
While I agree that the ETH is a viable potential explanation for the UFO phenomenon (despite my recent preoccupation with other ideas), I don't think Paul's "30 or 40 years" argument survives careful consideration.
In a comment appended to Paul's post, I remark (in part):
Faced with the vast amount of time in which our galaxy has evolved into its present state, the odds of visiting aliens possessing a technology a few meager decades ahead of us are very, very low. We'd be more likely to expect aliens hundreds of thousands, millions (or even billions) of years ahead of us -- and I think mainstream astrobiologists like [David] Grinspoon would back me up on this.
Which, of course, leads to an unsettling realization: Most "mainstream" thinkers like Grinspoon (who could help ETH proponents in their ostensible quest for the truth) steer clear of ufology. It's possible this has less to do with the phenomenon's scientific validity than with the ETH proponents' unhealthy certainty that we're dealing with ET spacecraft.
As long as the ETH remains dogma, we'll see little or no productive dialogue between the ufological "community" and the scientific mainstream. And while neither side is totally to blame, I feel it's incumbent upon ufology to break the ice. It can start by refamiliarizing itself with scientific methodology and the need to suspend conclusions -- however fetching -- in the face of a genuine unknown.
5 comments:
As long as the ETH remains dogma, we'll see little or no productive dialogue between the ufological "community" and the scientific mainstream. And while neither side is totally to blame, I feel it's incumbent upon ufology to break the ice. It can start by refamiliarizing itself with scientific methodology and the need to suspend conclusions -- however fetching -- in the face of a genuine unknown.
BINGO!
You're absolutely, 100% correct, that it's up to ufology to move towards science first, and not the other way around - and that will involve, as you suggest, the jettisoning of dogma, and self-satisfied holier-than-thou know-it-all-ism (I just made that one up), and a return to a balanced look at a subject that remains an enigma. It also means a willingness to entertain criticism, even harsh criticism, in the search for the truth.
Paul
I suppose the problem with the ETH is that the data is so varied and downright weird (with no clear dividing lines between ufology and the weirder edges of cryptozoology and other branches of Forteana) that it is just an inadequate explanation.
From what I've seen I'm not 100% convinced that Mac's CTH will be able to explain it all either but then again nothing does (Keel and Vallee are a little to nebulous and really just suggest something very strange is going which is not unreasonable conclusion but doesn't offer any testable hypothesise). The reason I'm looking forward to seeing what Mac comes up with is that it offers a theory that can be tested against the data which is in the end what science is all about - hypothesis testing. Even if the hypothesis doesn't work out it has provided another angle on exmaining the problem and might be slightly closer to "the truth" than previous efforts. It also helps mix things up and shows people they can try thinking along different lines.
Even if the hypothesis doesn't work out it has provided another angle on exmaining the problem and might be slightly closer to "the truth" than previous efforts. It also helps mix things up and shows people they can try thinking along different lines.
My thoughts exactly.
to many lies, to many excuses, and hundred of hiding trues, why the government effort top hide something that should be of the public domain.
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