A super-flu could kill up to 1.9 million Americans, according to a draft of the government's plan to fight a worldwide epidemic. Officials are rewriting that plan to designate not just who cares for the sick but who will keep the country running amid the chaos, said an influenza specialist who is advising the government on those decisions.
Coincidentally, I watched "28 Days Later" on DVD last night. I found the movie stunning in the theater and would have found it considerably more so if it had featured the should-have-been alternate ending featured on the disc.
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Avian flu, in the form of H5N1, is potentially an extremely serious problem. It may have already mutated to a form which is easily transmissable between humans, as appears to be the case in Indonesia. Insofar as such a viral variation has not appeared before, no one on the planet has the slightest bit of resistance - no antibodies at all for this sort of flu. Here follow some few of the more active web sites on the subject.
http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/fluwatch/
http://www.fluwikie.com/
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/
http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JID/journal/home.html
http://www.paho.org/
http://www.recombinomics.com/
http://www.thepoultrysite.com/default.asp
There are many others out there worth at least a look. The problem with this flu is that it apparently does not primarily take the very young or very old, such as past flus, but rather mainly targets those in the prime of life, and seemingly most healthy and resilient. It'll kill everybody else, too, but mid life folk seem most endangered. This is no joke: it could kill you, and a bunch of your friends. I suggest all who take an interest in life at least learn the basics of this potential pandemic, and prepare as best ye may.
This really is something to be scared of. The more you learn, the scarier it is; I've been following this for about 18 months now, and folks, we just might have a REAL problem, here.
Should any wish, I've about another dozen addresses, but the above are a good start. The Centers for Disease Control have been a bit lackadaisical about updating their web pages, but what the hell: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/
I'm not kiddin': this can kill you. And, it is coming. Biologists and Virologists are even now testing wild fowl on the Alaska Peninsula, not 14 miles from my home. You cannot stop these migrating birds.
And, if that doesn't make you nervous, try this: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1818987,00.html
The present administration has proven its incompetence many times. Now,it could kill you in your own home, through lack of foresight and preparation. Those guys think they're hot shit, but they don't have a clue. Someting like this can shut down travel and industry, with all the difficulties such would bring - like food shortages, due to truckers not moving, things like that. Think about it.
"Britain The Times October 10, 2005
America 'faces worst disaster in its history'
From Tim Reid in Washington
A PLAN drawn up by the Bush Administration to combat a pandemic bird flu outbreak reveals that America is grossly unprepared to deal with what would likely be the worst disaster in US history.
The 381-page draft plan, leaked by health officials who claim that it contains fundamental failures, predicts that a full-scale outbreak could kill as many as 1.9 million Americans and put 8.5 million in hospital at a cost of more than $450 billion (£256 billion).
Hospitals would quickly become overwhelmed, riots would break out at vaccine clinics, civil unrest would sweep the country, and power and food would be in short supply, according to the plan, which has been years in the making. It calls for quarantine and travel restrictions but concedes that those measures “are unlikely to delay introduction of pandemic disease into the US by more than a month or two”.
A large outbreak in Asia, because of modern travel patterns, would be likely to reach the US within “a few months or even weeks”. The plan, which was passed to The New York Times, calls for the ability to manufacture 600 million vaccine doses within six months, more than ten times the country’s current capacity."... Article continues.
(WeeVee: KADIPO! That means Forward, to The Future! Maybe. :-D )
Fuck that noise. I'm 38. So if this fucker even gets to the U.S. shores I am heading off to the In-Laws backwoods farm for quarentine.
The present administration has proven its incompetence many times. Now,it could kill you in your own home, through lack of foresight and preparation. Those guys think they're hot shit, but they don't have a clue.
Yeah. Given the Bush administration's track record on dealing with large-scale disasters (and even creating them), there's not much room to hope. I can't just take off and hole up in the woods all winter, so the best I can do is stock up on Vitamin C and get my regular flu shots (which I suspect aren't much protection but maybe better than nothing).
And stock up on surgical masks. There was a potential epidemic several years ago that fortunately didn't happen. I was commuting on public transportation at the time and people did start wearing these. I bought a bunch then which I never used and plan to get some more. Again, every little bit helps -- surgical masks, vitamin C, shots, moving to Alaska....
I just went out and bought a pack of 50 for $10 at the local CVS.
Cap'n Marrrrk: although I cannot recall the name of the Late Medieval Italian writer, I do recall the statement. It had to do with dealing with bubonic plague - the Black Death.
"Run soon."
"Run far."
"Stay long."
Do realize that remoteness is NO GARUNTEE of safety. But, it would have to help the odds for your individual survival. Couldn't hurt. Take a gun. Know how to use it.
The flu is not like the plague, though. Remoteness (lack of physical contact with people) is actually very effective, but hard to put into practice.
Surgical face masks are worthless, except insofar as they keep you from touching your face/eyes/etc.
The best, most effective thing you can do to avoid catching any form of influenza or similar viral diseases is twofold:
1) Don't touch your face. You know those people who never seem to get sick no matter what? Studies show that these are also people who rarely touch their faces.
2) Wash your hands often, particularly after touching people or things people touch (money, furniture, keyboards, etc.)
If you do these two things, you've reduced your chances of catching something tremendously -- more than anything else you could possible do (including vaccinations).
Good points.
I mostly agree too. But if bird flu hits big, I'm STILL going to wear a surgical mask in public. Germs DO travel through the air as well as by contact, otherwise why the hell do DOCTORS AND NURSES WEAR THEM IN THE OPERATING ROOM (and also when treating highly contagious patients)? PLUS wash my hands a lot and not stick my fingers in my mouth (or, yeah, touch my face).
Yes, it is possible to get the flu through droplets in the air -- but it's very unlikely unless somebody sneezes in your face, because the size of droplets that remain suspended long enough for you to breath them don't contain that much virus. Depending on the exact disease, of course -- some diseases require a higher dose than others.
Doctors don't wear surgical masks to protect doctors. They wear them to protect the patients in case of an errant sneeze, or if they spit when they talk, etc.
There are masks that can actually filter out germs, but those are pretty expensive and resemble painting respirators (again, depending on the germ -- but virii are really, really tiny).
Oh, I should add -- it's all about mucous membranes. The flu can infect you if you get a sufficient quantity of virus on a mucous membrane. It won't infect you just being on unbroken skin. So, even just breaking the habits of rubbing eyes, biting fingernails, and picking noses can go a very long way.
For those who wonder how I speak so confidently on this, here's my personal anecdote, with full acknowledgment that such anecdotes are scientifically meaningless. And also that I have time to kill at the moment. :)
I used to get the flu all the time. If it was going around, I'd catch it. This got better as I got older, but I always dreaded flu season. Then, as part of a job I had in a biological lab, I had to learn nitty-gritty details about things like how virii get transmitted. During that time, I came across two well-corroborated findings: people touch their faces all the time without knowing it, and well over 95% of all transmissions of the flu are hand-to-mucous membrane, usually through rubbing the eyes.
So, I started paying close attention to my face-touching habits, and started washing my hands more. I;m not anal abaout either of those things, but I'm careful about timing -- if I want to rub my eyes or pick my nose, I'm sure to wash my hands first, and I wash my hands a couple times a day just on principle. I'm now going on my fifth year of being flu-free. Your mileage may vary.
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