Unlike Paul, I've come to disagree with the prevailing Fortean conceit that the Extraterrestrial Hypothesis is the best hypothesis for "real" UFO reports; I view the phenomenon as a manifestation of consciousness that we have no way of fully understanding until we dispense with the misguided hope of remaining objective observers. In my opinion, the UFO phenomenon is but one facet of an overarching enigma with implications that promise to dwarf the question of ET visitation, perhaps even dealing a blow to the underpinnings of Western thought.
That said, I think Paul and I agree on more than a little when it comes to the heavily mythologized certainties handed down from ufology's dubious "Golden Age."
The Myth of the ETH as ETFact
However, it's critical to remember that the key letter in ETH is the "H" - it's still just a hypothesis, and anyone who tells you that they can prove that aliens have visited Earth beyond a reasonable doubt, or even on the balance of probabilities, is putting the cart well before the horse.
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This is what I call "Keyhoe-ian" ufology, because it is based directly on the way of thinking that Major Donald Keyhoe first put forward in the 1950s. It is out-of-date, and badly out-of-touch with modern science. It presumes that aliens are only a few decades, or maybe one or two hundred years or so more advanced than us, which is highly unlikely. It presumes that the aliens are preoccupied with us, and that we are somehow important to them, which is also highly unlikely. In short, it is a point of view that is based on what people who grew up in the pioneering days of sci-fi and the space race expect of their aliens, and not the point-of-view that modern physicists and astrobiologists take.