Posthuman Blues

Barrett: No end in sight for Moore's Law

"Conventional chip manufacturing processes use a technology called complimentary metal oxide semiconductors, or CMOS. It's not clear what technology will replace that to create even tinier transistors, but Barrett mentioned three options: quantum dot, polymer layer and nanotube technology.

"'I don't think the world has decided what is the replacement yet,' Barrett said. 'Meanwhile, it's full blast ahead with the standard Moore's Law.'

"Moore's Law is the 1965 projection by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore that the number of transistors on a chip will double about once every two years. 'I've told Gordon I plan to help him celebrate the 50th anniversary of Moore's Law in 2015, and hopefully the 60th anniversary in 2025,' Barrett said."

So even if computers don't get any smarter, at least we can count on them getting smaller and faster and -- one hopes -- ever cheaper. And it's possible that sheer processing speed could compensate for some of "weak" AI's main hindrances.